![]() ![]() His final line includes an 8/1 K/BB ratio, the HBP, and the homer to Vierling. Fried hits Nick Castellanos with a pitch to start the seventh, ending his day. Suarez ends up leaving after 5 2⁄ 3 with a 7/0 K/BB ratio, but two homers allowed. Fried escapes the frame with an Alec Bohm flyout. ![]() ![]() Schwarber chugs down the line trying to tie it, but Matt Olson is able to flip the ball and get Schwarber tagged out at home. In a bit of weirdness, Realmuto hits a swinging bunt into no-man’s land. Rhys Hoskins singles, and Harper hits an almost-but-not-quite fly ball that lets Schwarber tag up and take third with J.T. Fried is left in to start his third trip through the order, and walks Schwarber to start said trip. Things get more interesting in the sixth. (Yes, Harris homering off a lefty is weird, but this is one PA in one game of one simulation.) Harris later doubles with two outs in the bottom of the fifth, but the Braves can’t bring him home. It doesn’t stay tied for long, though, as Michael Harris II unties it with another solo homer. However, Matt Vierling hits a solo shot of his own in the top of the third, tying the game. This game starts in a non-unusual fashion early, as Dansby Swanson takes Ranger Suarez deep in the first inning for a 1-0 lead. So I probably won’t pair this with a post showing an adverse outcome for the Braves in the interim, feel free to enjoy this as an overly-detailed but completely meaningless snapshot of the model outputs of one set of three games. For the sake of interest, I will say that I tried to scan through for a Phillies win to do a “How the Phillies could beat the Braves,” and by coincidence (not any degree of predictiveness), the next few runs also featured Braves winning the series, often in silly-yet-predictable ways (like getting completely shut down until the third time through and then destroying the opposing pitcher in one inning and cruising to a win). Is that because the Braves are super-likely to sweep the Phillies in three games? No way! It’s just what this model run happened to pull out. Those results, detailed below, reflect a three-game sweep. In keeping with how I did this before, I simply ran this model once and reported the results. In seasons past, ahead of playoff series, I used one of these models to throw together “How the Braves might win” and “How the Braves might lose posts.” For this season, I built a new model which does a lot more granular simulation of where ball are hit and what happens to them, based on the actual things that have happened this season for each team’s batters and pitchers. These models are really “for entertainment purposes only,” in the sense that they spit out detailed game results, but aren’t as predictive, at a macro level, than others - because that’s not their point. For the past few years, I’ve dabbled in models to simulate games. ![]()
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